Generic Base Acreage Payment Credit Calculator

MSU-ES-GenericBasePaymentCreditCalculator If a farm has generic base acreage under the Agricultural Act of 2014, ARC-CO and PLC payments (if triggered) for Title I covered commodities planted on that farm will be coupled to the generic base acres. Because of this new relation of potential farm program payments to plantings, the potential cash flows from these programs should be included in the budgeting process for crop mix decisions. This spreadsheet is designed to help producers in making those calculations.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Feb. 20, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash fed cattle were mostly steady once again this week. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $159.99, live, and $256.36, dressed; respectively, down $0.50 and up $1.21. Cash trades in Kanas were reported at $160 for live cattle. In Nebraska, dressed sales were mostly $253-$258 during the week, while live sales came in at $159-$160. Limited trade in the Western Cornbelt was reported with prices at $160 and $253-$256, respectively, for live and dressed.

Feeder steers in Mississippi auction markets were $5-$10 lower and heifers were mostly $5 lower. In Oklahoma City, feeder steers were steady to $4 higher, while feeder heifers were steady. Heifer calves sold $5-$15 higher.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Feeder and live cattle futures contracts were mostly steady throughout the week until Friday. Cash markets appeared to be holding the line and giving futures participants reason to do the same. Boxed beef prices added support as they moved slightly higher during the week. Friday brought about more bearish sentiment with regard to beef demand as the U.S. economy remains sluggish, while pork and chicken supplies look to be competitive. Friday afternoon USDA released their monthly inventory of cattle in feedlots. The report revealed 10.711 million head of cattle are in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more. This was even with one year ago and on par with the no-change that was expected. Cattle placed into these feedlots throughout January totaled 1.787 million head, down 11%, which was slightly higher than the expected 14% decline. Cattle sold during January totaled 1.625 million head, down 9% and on par with pre-report expectations. (More on the report will be available soon.)

Corn futures ended the week lower. Most contracts stayed within a five cent per bushel range throughout the week.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher, and moved higher throughout the week. Choice boxes averaged $239.47, up $0.78. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $235.32, up $1.05.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Crop Market Update: USDA Ag Outlook Forum Gives a First Look at the 2015 Crop

Corn has remained steady through much of the week, continuing a trend that started earlier this month. Thursday’s Greenville cash corn is 4 cents higher than a week ago, with nearby March futures contracts also up 4 cents on the week. The big news this week for most of our crop markets comes from the USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum held Thursday. Corn acres are expected to be 1.6 million acres lower this year with 89 million acres expected to be planted this spring. This came in very close to market analysts’ expectations and would mark the lowest corn acreage since 88.2 million acres were planted in 2010.

Soybean markets have had another strong week this week with Greenville cash prices trading 29 cents higher than a week ago and nearby futures contracts also trading 29 cents higher. A big driver of the market this week came as a result of the USDA’s lower forecasted soybean acres. Soybean acres are forecasted to be at 83.5 million acres, slightly lower than last year’s 83.7 million acres. This surprised many analysts who were expecting to see the forecasted acres to be higher at just over 86 million acres. The acreage forecast should provide a bullish tone to the market for now, but the upside is still limited given large global stocks.

Wheat has remained steady this week with Thursday’s Greenville cash wheat trading 2 cents higher than a week ago although Friday’s wheat futures are slipping a bit. The USDA’s outlook forum provided a bearish tone for wheat with a forecast production of 2.125 billion bushels, but weather conditions and uncertainty around the crop’s condition going into spring has kept the market from sliding too much.

Cotton has had a strong week with cash cotton prices in the south delta trading $2.67/cwt higher on the week. The USDA outlook forum likely added a boost to the market with forecasted cotton acres estimated to be 9.7 million acres this year, a 1.3 million acre decrease from a year ago and the lowest acreage since 2009.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Feb 13, 2014

Cash Cattle:

For the most part, when assessing the changes from last week to this week, steadiness across all markets the over-arching theme. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $160.54, live, and $255.15, dressed; respectively, down $1.81 and up $3.15. Nebraska traded cattle at $255 and $160-$162, for dressed and live, respectively. Similarly, live sales were recorded at the same $160-$162 level. In the Western Cornbelt, dressed and live sales were reported, respectively, at $254-$255 and $157-$161.

Feeder steers in Mississippi auction markets were mixed but mostly steady, with the exception being heavy weight feeder steers. Heavy weight cattle ended the week $10 lower. Feeder heifers were steady. After a short anomaly, prices fell back in line with the typical relationship with futures as feeder basis for feeders shifted more negative. In Oklahoma City, feeder steers and heifers were steady to $1 lower, while calves were $2-$5 higher.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Cattle futures ended the week steady (to slightly higher for feeder futures). Support stemmed mostly from steady cash cattle, strengthening beef prices during most of the week, and overall positive sentiment in the general economy.

Corn futures were two cents per bushel higher across contract months.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower, but moved mildly higher until the end of the week. Choice boxes averaged $238.69, down $3.06. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $234.27, down $0.83.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Feb 06, 2014

Cash Cattle:

Cash fed cattle were mostly steady this week. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $158.73, live, and $252, dressed; respectively, down $0.70 and up $1.93. Nebraska traded cattle at $255 and $161-$162.50, for dressed and live, respectively. In the Western Cornbelt, live and dressed sales were reported, respectively, at $254 and $161.

Feeder steers in Mississippi auction markets were higher, with heavy weight cattle ending the week $10-$20 higher. Feeder heifers were called $5-$20 lower. Interestingly, feeder basis improved this week indicating strength in the cash compared to futures markets (which were lower). In Oklahoma City, light feeder steers and heifers were $8-$12 higher, while heavy feeder steers were steady $4 higher.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Cattle futures ended the week lower. Last Friday’s inventory report indicated a ramping up in the beef herd. Despite the potential lag in the pipeline the market did not like the report and as a result prices moved lower early in the week. Improvements in the cash market for feeders and, at the very least, steadiness in the fed market stopped the decline. A much better than anticipated jobs report on Friday boosted futures markets.

Corn futures were higher. For more on the corn and soybean market, click here >> (CLICK HERE).

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower, but these prices typically slip at this time of the year. Choice boxes averaged $241.75, down $4.94. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $235.10, down $4.79.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Crop Market Update: February 6, 2015

Corn markets started the week strong and remained steady through the remainder of the week. Thursday’s Greenville cash corn is 13 cents higher than a week ago, with nearby March futures contracts also up 16 cents on the week. Export are lower on the week with 661,675 metric tons inspected this week compared to 886,825 tons exported this week a year ago. Although exports are lower on the week, we are still well ahead of the USDA’s forecasts for the year. Lower expected planted acres this year as well as rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia have also been helping to support corn markets.

Soybean markets have held steady to slightly higher over the last week with another week of strong exports and falling expectations from the Brazilian soybean crop. Argentina may offset some of the Brazilian losses, but we will find out more next week with the new USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates come out. As of Thursday, Greenville cash soybeans were 18 cents higher on the week and March soybean futures were 13 cents higher.

Wheat has had a strong week and at least temporarily has broken a nearly two month slide in prices. Greenville cash wheat is trading 18 cents higher than a week ago and nearby wheat futures are also 18 cents higher on the week. Weather conditions in the Black Sea region have been favorable however dry weather across the plains has begun to spark concern for the U.S. winter wheat crop going into spring. U.S. exports are higher on the week with some sales expected to take place with Egypt in the near future. As with corn, a recent rise in tension between Ukraine and Russia is also likely giving wheat markets a slight boost.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Jan 30, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash fed cattle were steady to lower to end the week. The five-area fed steers price ended the week at $159.43, live, and $250.07, dressed; respectively, down $0.08 and $5.96. Nebraska traded cattle at $254 and $$160-$60.50, for dressed and live, respectively. Thursday sales in Kansas were recorded at $159-$160 live.

Feeder steers in Mississippi auction markets were steady, feeder heifers were called $7.50-$15 lower, steer calves were $5-$25 lower, and heifer calves were mostly $2.50 lower during the week. Cull cows and bulls were $3 higher to $4 lower. In Oklahoma City, feeder steers and heifers were $10-$15 lower, while calves traded mostly lower.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Cattle futures ended the week higher versus last week. Feeder contract prices were mostly $3 higher on all months except January. Live contracts were higher on all contracts traded through 2015.  Lower corn prices added incentive to bid up steer prices. The macro-economic picture remains a concern though. On Friday, USDA released their annual count of cattle in the U.S. and across states. The report revealed growth in the cattle industry and what looks to be continued to growth (for more information on the report CLICK HERE).

Corn futures were lower by the week’s end. For more on the market, click here >> (CLICK HERE).

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower, but these prices typically slip at this time of the year. Choice boxes averaged $246.69, down $10.16. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $239.89, down $8.75.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

2015 Cattle Inventories

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released their annual cattle inventory report Friday afternoon (Jan 30). The report was highly anticipated given the continued shrinking herd size which was exacerbated in the past few years due to drought. While it was expected that the total number of beef cows would continue to shrink, industry participants and analyst were focused on the number of heifers held back for replacement as indication of rebuilding.

Cattle inventories increased in 2014. Keep in mind these numbers are a snap-shot in time of where the beef and dairy cattle herds are at in the United States. For example, the past few years have shown increases in heifer retention, only to see those heifers not remain on farms/ranches due to drought, market incentives, or other reasons. However, this report revealed both an increase in heifers held back for replacement as well as an increase in the beef cow herd. So, it appears that herd expansion has finally arrived.

The report revealed that the number of all cattle and calves in the U.S. total 89.80 million head on January 1, 2015. This represents an increase of 1.44% compared to one year ago. Analyst were expecting a 0.10% decline. The total number of beef cows in the U.S. totaled 29.693 million head, up 607,700 head or a 2.09% increase from last year. Pre-report expectations called for a 0.60% increase. Beef heifers held back for replacement totaled 5.78 million head, up 4.07% from a year ago but less than the 2.70% that was expected. All of these changes were higher than the most optimistic prediction.

The number of milk cows in the U.S. totaled 9.31 million head, up 1.08% from last year, and higher than the 0.50% increase that was expected. Milk replacement heifers totaled 4.615 million head, up 1.47% from a year ago, while analyst expected a slight increase of 0.30%.

Mississippi veered from the national sentiment as most inventories were lower than one year ago. The total number of all cattle and calves on January 1, 2015 came in at 910,000 head, down 2.15% compared to last year. The beef cow herd totaled 468,000, down 1.89%, and heifers held back for replacement totaled 95,000, a 4.40% jump. Steers and heifers (not for replacement) over 500 pounds totaled 61,000 and 35,000 head, respectively, down 1.61% and 18.60% compared to 2014. Mississippi’s milk cow herd totaled 12,000 head, a drop of 1,000 from last year.

To veiw details about the inventories click HERE.