Crop Market Update: June 29, 2015

The wet weather across the Corn Belt has been hampering the crop’s condition and many are expecting a 750,000 acre reduction as a result of the excessive rainfall. As a result, corn is up sharply on the week with Greenville cash corn selling $0.35 higher than a week ago at $4.08/bu on Friday. Nearby July futures contracts higher on the week, finishing up $0.27 on the week. The USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report is currently showing the U.S. corn crop rated as 68% good or excellent while Mississippi’s corn crop is rated as 70% good or excellent. This lags a bit behind a year ago when the U.S. crop was rated as 75% good or excellent. Mississippi’s corn crop progress is ahead of last year with 37% entering the dough stage compared 24% a year ago.

Soybean markets are also up from a week ago, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.49 higher at $10.32/bu on Friday. Nearby July soybean futures are also trading $0.24 higher than a week ago. Mississippi soybean progress is ahead of last year with 43% of the state’s soybeans blooming compared to 36% a year ago. Mississippi’s soybeans are rated as 73% good or excellent while the U.S. soybean crop is rated as 63% good or excellent compared to 72% a year ago. As with corn, soybean conditions have been harmed by the wet summer that much of the country has been having so far.

Greenville cash wheat is up sharply, trading $0.92 cents higher than a week ago at $5.52/bu while July wheat futures are up $0.74. Rain in the eastern part of the Corn Belt has kept producers out of the field as the soft red winter wheat crop is needing to be harvested. Mississippi producers have harvested 96% of the wheat crop. U.S. wheat producers have harvested 38% of the winter wheat crop so far, well behind the 5-year average of 46%. The U.S. wheat crop was rated as 41% good or excellent condition in the latest crop progress report compared to 30% good or excellent a year ago.

Cotton prices have also been bullish over the last couple of weeks with South Delta cash prices finishing the week $2.33/cwt higher. Mississippi’s cotton crop looks relatively good so far this year with 64% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. The U.S. crop is rated as 56% good or excellent compared to 53% a year ago. Cotton progress is slightly behind average with 35% of the U.S. crop squaring and 5% of the crop setting bolls compared to 40% and 8% 5-year averages, respectively.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending June 26, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $148.68 for live sales, and $238.01 for dressed; respectively, down $2.61 and $2.19. Total volume sold was 6,000 head higher than a week ago and 60,000 head lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mixed across much of the U.S. this week with prices finishing the week higher in some areas and lower in other areas. Pasture conditions continue to look good this summer. The USDA rated 65% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, unchanged from last week and up from a rating of 55% good or excellent a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions are rated 71% good or excellent. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders and calves were steady to $2.50 higher, while heavy steers were down $6.50 from a week ago. Oklahoma City feeder steers and heifers were up $2.00 to $3.00 this week.

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Futures:

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were down across the board this week. August live cattle were down about $2.25 on the week, while February live cattle were down $1.87. Feeder cattle were also lower with August futures down $6.18 from last Friday and January futures are down $3.80 on the week. Wet weather through much of the corn belt have brought corn futures up sharply on the week, with July futures up $0.32 and December futures up $0.33.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices continues their summer climb this week. Choice boxes averaged $254.31, up $4.44 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $248.94, up $5.27. The choice-select spread further narrowed from $6.20 a week ago to $5.37 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

 

Crop Market Update: June 23, 2015

Corn is down on the week with Greenville cash corn selling seven cents lower than a week ago at $3.73/bu on Thursday. Nearby July futures contracts higher on the week, finishing up five cents on the week. The USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report is currently showing the U.S. corn crop rated as 71% good or excellent while Mississippi’s corn crop is rated as 68% good or excellent. This lags a bit behind a year ago when the U.S. crop was rated as 74% good or excellent. Mississippi’s corn crop progress is ahead of last year but a bit behind the 5-year average with 66% of the crop silked and 26% entering the dough stage compared to 63% and 7% 5-year averages, respectively.

Soybean markets are up from a week ago, with Greenville soybeans trading 13 cents higher as of Thursday. Nearby July soybean futures are also trading 38 cents higher than a week ago. Mississippi soybean progress is ahead of last year with 31% of the state’s soybeans blooming compared to 19% a year ago. Mississippi’s soybeans are rated as 66% good or excellent while the U.S. soybean crop is rated as 65% good or excellent compared to 72% a year ago. Crop conditions have been harmed by the wet summer that much of the country has been having so far.

With harvest nearly complete in Mississippi, local wheat basis is continuing to take a hit. Greenville cash wheat is trading 39 cents lower than a week ago while July wheat futures are down 16 cents. That represents a 23 cent swing in wheat basis in the state in just one week and a 55 cent swing in two weeks. The main driver of the drastic change in basis is the rapid harvest progress in the state. Mississippi producers have harvested 92% of the wheat crop. U.S. wheat producers have harvested 19% of the winter wheat crop so far, well behind the 5-year average of 31%. The U.S. wheat crop was rated as 41% good or excellent condition in the latest crop progress report.

Cotton prices have seen boost over the last week with a $1.06/cwt increase. Mississippi’s cotton crop looks relatively good so far this year with 62% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. The U.S. crop is rated as 55% good or excellent compared to 53% a year ago.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending June 19, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $151.29 for live sales, and $240.20 for dressed; respectively, down $3.57 and $4.99. Total volume sold was 7,000 head higher than a week ago and 64,000 head lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mixed across much of the U.S. this week with prices finishing the week higher in some areas and lower in other areas. Pasture conditions continue to look good this summer. The USDA rated 65% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, up from 63% good or excellent last week and 54% good or excellent a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions are rated 72% good or excellent. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders and calves were steady to $5.00 lower, while heavy steers were slightly lower than a week ago. Oklahoma City feeder steers and heifers were steady to $7.00 lower this week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were mixed this week. August live cattle were down about $0.12 on the week, while February live cattle were up $1.10. Feeder cattle were also mixed with August futures down $0.02 from last Friday but January futures up $0.67 on the week. Corn futures were largely unchanged on the week, with only a penny difference for most contracts.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on the week. Choice boxes averaged $249.87, up $3.49 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $243.67, up $3.90. The choice-select spread narrowed from $6.61 a week ago to $6.20 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

 

June Cattle on Feed Report Recap

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (June 19). The report revealed that 10.561 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on June 1, 2015. Placements into feedlots during the month of May totaled 1.714 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.711 million head.

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Placements totaled 1.714 million head, a decrease of 10.21% from May 2014 and a 13.33% decrease from the five-year average of 2010 to 2014. Market analyst expected placements to come in at 1.745 million head, so the reported value was slightly lower than anticipated — although it was still well within the range of expectations. The drop in placements came from a decrease in lightweight placements, with all weight classes except for cattle larger than 800 pounds coming in lower than a year ago nationally. Cattle smaller than 600 pounds saw the largest year-over year drop with a 15.8% decline in placements.

Cattle marketed in May totaled 1.711 million head, down 8.26% versus last year and down 11.78% compared to the average from 2010 to 2014. Pre-report expectations called for marketings to be 9.4% lower than the same period last year.

The total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity totaled 10.561 million head, up 0.61% versus June 1, 2014 but 1.74% lower than the five-year average.  Market analysts expected a 0.9% year-over-year increase in cattle inventories, so the reported value came in very close to expectations.

Crop Market Update: Week Ending June 12, 2015

Corn is slightly lower than a week ago with Greenville cash corn selling four cents lower than a week ago at $3.80/bu on Wednesday. Nearby July futures contracts are also down 8 cents on the week. The USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report is currently showing the U.S. corn crop rated as 73% good or excellent while Mississippi’s corn crop is rated as 72% good or excellent. This lags a bit behind a year ago when the U.S. crop was rated as 76% good or excellent. Mississippi’s corn crop is ahead of last year but a bit behind the 5-year average with 47% of the crop silked compared to 41% a year ago and a 5-year average of 52%.

Soybean markets are slightly lower than a week ago, with Greenville soybeans trading two cents lower as of Friday. Nearby July soybean futures are also trading two cents lower than a week ago. Planting progress is lagging slightly behind average with 87% of the U.S. crop planted compared to an average of 90%. Mississippi producers are nearly done planting with 93% of the state’s crop planted and 15% of the state’s soybeans blooming. Mississippi’s soybeans are rated as 66% good or excellent while the U.S. soybean crop is rated as 67% good or excellent compared to 73% a year ago. The lower rating is a result of fields that are actually too wet, but if things dry out in the next few weeks we could see some improvement in the soybean condition.

With harvest well under way in Mississippi, local wheat prices are taking a hit. Greenville cash wheat is trading 35 cents lower than a week ago while July wheat futures are down 13 cents. That represents a 22 cent swing in wheat basis in the state in just one week. The main driver of the drastic change in basis is the rapid harvest progress in the state. Mississippi producers have harvested 70% of the wheat crop, with 35% being harvested in the last week alone. The U.S. wheat crop was rated as 43% good or excellent condition in the latest crop progress with 11% of the crop harvested so far.

Cotton prices have seen a slight boost over the last week with a six cent per hundredweight increase. Mississippi’s cotton crop looks relatively good so far this year with 62% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. The U.S. crop is rated as 55% good or excellent compared to 51% a year ago.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending June 12, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $154.86 for live sales, and $245.19 for dressed; respectively, down $2.42 and $2.68. Total volume sold was down slightly from a week ago and much lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly unchanged or slightly higher across much of the U.S. this week. Pasture conditions continue to look good this summer. The USDA rated 63% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, up from 61% good or excellent last week and 51% good or excellent a year ago. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders and calves were $5.00 to $10.00 higher, while heavy steers were slightly lower than a week ago. Oklahoma City feeder steers and heifers were steady to $1.00 lower this week.

The House has voted to repeal country of origin labeling on meat on Wednesday in hopes of preventing retaliation from Canada and Mexico in response to the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling a few weeks ago.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were mixed this week. June live cattle were down about $0.37 on the week, while February live cattle were up $0.35. Feeder cattle were also mixed with August futures up $1.55 from last Friday but January futures down $0.82 on the week. Corn futures were lower on the week despite few surprises in this month’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates released earlier this week.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on the week. Choice boxes averaged $246.38, down $3.28 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $239.77, down $1.00. The choice-select spread narrowed from $8.89 a week ago to $6.61 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Few Surprises in June Supply and Demand Estimates

The corn balance sheet for the 2015/16 crop currently growing in the field remains unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop were revised up by 25 million bushels as a result of higher carry over from the 2014/15 crop, while everything else remained the same. The 25 million bushel increase in carry over from last year is due to a reduction in ethanol use, while everything else remained unchanged for the 2014/15 corn crop as well. The lack of changes in the report for the corn crop is unsurprising. The yield and acreage is the same as that reported it the March Prospective plantings report. The USDA notes that more than 90 percent of yield variability is determined by July weather, so we will likely not see much of a change in production numbers until later this year. Global ending stocks were increased substantially from 191.9 million metric tons to 195.2 million metric tons.

The soybean balance sheet also had few changes from the May WASDE report. Carryover from the 2014/15 crop was reduced by 20 million bushels as a result of a 10 million bushel increase each in crush and exports. The crush for the 2015/16 crop was also increased by 5 million bushels to push ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop year down by 25 million bushels to 475 million bushels. While lower than last month’s estimates, the soybean ending stocks number is much higher than last year’s 330 million bushels and more than five times the size of the carryover from 2013/14. Global ending stocks were reduced from 96.2 million metric tons to 93.2 million metric tons.

The 2015/16 wheat crop had a few changes made to the balance sheet. Carryover was 3 million bushels higher as a result of reduced exports in 2014/15. Yields for the 2015/16 crop were increased by 0.7 bu/acre, likely a reflection of the much needed rainfall across the plains this spring. Feed and residual use was increased by 15 million bushels, leaving ending stocks 21 million bushels higher. The remainder of the balance sheet was unchanged from last month.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.