Crop Market Update: July 28, 2015

Corn continued to struggle this week with Greenville cash corn selling $0.27 lower than a week ago at $4.03/bu on Friday. September futures contracts are also down on the week, finishing $0.27 lower than last Friday. The USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report is currently showing the U.S. corn crop rated as 70% good or excellent while Mississippi’s corn crop is also rated as 70% good or excellent. This lags a bit behind a year ago when the U.S. crop was rated as 75% good or excellent. Mississippi’s corn crop progress is trending behind the 5-year average with 10% of the crop mature compared 16% a year ago and a 5-year average of 16%.

Soybean markets are also down from a week ago, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.29 lower at $10.06/bu on Friday. Nearby August soybean futures are also trading $0.24 lower than a week ago. Mississippi soybean progress is ahead of last year with 63% of the state’s soybeans setting pods compared to 50% a year ago and a 5-year average of 68%. Mississippi’s soybeans are rated as 75% good or excellent while the U.S. soybean crop is rated as 62% good or excellent compared to 71% a year ago.

September wheat futures are down $0.42 from a week ago while Greeneville wheat prices were not reported on Friday. U.S. wheat producers have harvested 85% of the winter wheat crop so far and despite a slow start, they are ahead of the 5-year average of 80%. The U.S. spring wheat crop is rated as 71% good or excellent condition, and what may be a good spring wheat harvest has been keeping prices down here in Mississippi as well.

Cotton prices are also down slightly with South Delta cash prices finishing the week $0.03/cwt lower than a week ago. Mississippi’s cotton crop looks relatively good so far this year with 68% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. The wetter than normal summer has helped the U.S. crop with 57% good or excellent compared to 54% a year ago.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending July 24, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $145.40 for live sales, and $232.03 for dressed; respectively, down $0.60 and $2.97. Total volume sold was 1,000 head higher than a week ago but 32,000 head lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City lightweight steers were $2.00 to $5.00 lower while heavy steers were $3.00 to $5.00 lower. Pasture conditions continue to look good this summer. The USDA rated 63% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, down 2% from last week and up from a rating of 53% good or excellent a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions are rated 66% good or excellent. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were averaging 262.50, while heavy steers were averaging 205.00.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were down across the board this week. August live cattle were down about $3.68 on the week, while February live cattle were down $3.50. Feeder cattle were also lower with August futures down $4.85 from last Friday and January futures are down $6.60 on the week. Corn futures are down on the week week with September futures down $0.27 and December futures down $0.28.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices are lower on the week. Choice boxes averaged $232.67, down $2.18 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $228.95, down $3.17. The choice-select spread has begun to increase from $2.73 a week ago to $3.72 this week.

July Cattle on Feed

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon. Placements totaled 1.481 million head, up 0.89% from June 2014, slightly higher than expected. Cattle marketed in June totaled 1.747 million head, down 5.41% versus last year but almost exactly what analysts were expecting. The total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity totaled 10.236 million head, up 1.08% versus July 1, 2014 and relatively close to expectations.

July Cattle Inventory

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) also released their semi-annual cattle inventory numbers Friday afternoon. The report offered further evidence that the beef herd is expanding with 30.5 million head in the U.S. beef cow herd, or about 2.5% higher than July 2014. The total cattle inventory was also higher than a year ago with 98.4 million head of cattle. Beef replacement heifers numbered 4.9 million, a 7% increase from a year ago.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

July Cattle on Feed Report Recap

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (July 24). The report revealed that 10.236 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on July 1, 2015. Placements into feedlots during the month of May totaled 1.481 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.747 million head.

[ … For detailed numbers and charts CLICK HERE … ]

Placements totaled 1.481 million head, an increase of 0.89% from June 2014 and a 7.51% decrease from the five-year average of 2010 to 2014. Market analyst expected placements to come in at 1.455 million head, so the reported value somewhat higher than anticipated — although it was still well within the range of expectations. The increase in placements came primarily from a sharp jump in in heavyweight placements, although all weight classes except for cattle the smallest coming in higher than a year ago nationally. Cattle smaller than 600 pounds saw the largest year-over year drop with a 13.6% decline in placements while cattle larger than 800 pounds saw a 11.2% increase in placements.

Cattle marketed in June totaled 1.747 million head, down 5.41% versus last year and down 10.69% compared to the average from 2010 to 2014. Pre-report expectations called for marketings to be 5.4% lower than the same period last year.

The total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity totaled 10.236 million head, up 1.08% versus July 1, 2014 but 1.04% lower than the five-year average.  Market analysts expected a 1.6% year-over-year increase in cattle inventories, so the reported value came in relatively close to expectations.

Crop Market Update: July 21, 2015

Corn struggled to continue its upward trend this week with Greenville cash corn selling $0.14 lower than a week ago at $4.30/bu on Friday. September futures contracts are also down on the week, finishing down $0.15 on the week. The USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report is currently showing the U.S. corn crop rated as 69% good or excellent while Mississippi’s corn crop is rated as 70% good or excellent. This lags a bit behind a year ago when the U.S. crop was rated as 76% good or excellent. Mississippi’s corn crop progress is trending behind the 5-year average with 37% of the crop denting compared 34% a year ago and a 5-year average of 50%.

Soybean markets are also down from a week ago, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.21 lower at $10.35/bu on Thursday. Nearby August soybean futures are also trading $0.17 higher lower than a week ago. Mississippi soybean progress is ahead of last year with 49% of the state’s soybeans setting pods compared to 39% a year ago and a 5-year average of 56%. Mississippi’s soybeans are rated as 75% good or excellent while the U.S. soybean crop is rated as 62% good or excellent compared to 73% a year ago.

Greenville cash wheat is down this week, trading $0.46 lower than a week ago at $5.19/bu while September wheat futures are down $0.22. U.S. wheat producers have harvested 75% of the winter wheat crop so far and despite a slow start, they are ahead of the 5-year average of 74%.

Cotton prices have outshined other crops this week with South Delta cash prices finishing the week $0.16/cwt higher than a week ago. Mississippi’s cotton crop looks relatively good so far this year with 66% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. The wetter than normal summer has helped the U.S. crop with 57% good or excellent compared to 52% a year ago.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending July 17, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $146.00 for live sales, and $235.00 for dressed; respectively, down $5.43 and $5.27. Total volume sold was 23,000 head lower than a week ago and 39,000 head lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves are difficult to compare to last week because of the low volume sold. Pasture conditions continue to look good this summer. The USDA rated 65% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, down 1% from last week and up from a rating of 55% good or excellent a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions are rated 73% good or excellent. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were averaging $255.00, while heavy steers were averaging $201.00. Oklahoma City feeder steers and heifers were down $2.00 to $13.00 this week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures were down across the board this week while feeder cattle were up across the board. August live cattle were down about $0.83 on the week, while February live cattle were down $0.73. Feeder cattle were higher with August futures up $3.95 from last Friday and January futures are up $2.38 on the week. Corn were down this week with September futures down $0.15 and December futures down $0.14.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices are lower on the week. Choice boxes averaged $234.85, down $7.36 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $232.12, down $6.84. The choice-select spread narrowed further from $3.25 a week ago to $2.73 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Crop Market Update: July 14, 2015

Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates indicate that demand for old crop corn remains strong. As a result, corn continued its upward trend this week with Greenville cash corn selling $0.09 higher than a week ago at $4.44/bu on Thursday. September futures contracts are also higher on the week, finishing up $0.06 on the week. The USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report is currently showing the U.S. corn crop rated as 69% good or excellent while Mississippi’s corn crop is rated as 68% good or excellent. This lags a bit behind a year ago when the U.S. crop was rated as 71% good or excellent. Mississippi’s corn crop progress is trending behind the 5-year average with 10% of the crop denting compared 32% a year ago.

Soybean markets are also up from a week ago, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.19 higher at $10.56/bu on Thursday. Nearby August soybean futures are also trading $0.06 higher than a week ago. Mississippi soybean progress is ahead of last year with 31% of the state’s soybeans setting pods compared to 28% a year ago. Mississippi’s soybeans are rated as 74% good or excellent while the U.S. soybean crop is rated as 62% good or excellent compared to 72% a year ago.

Greenville cash wheat is down this week, trading $0.13 lower than a week ago at $5.65/bu while September wheat futures are down $0.15. U.S. wheat producers have harvested 67% of the winter wheat crop so far and despite a slow start, they are catching up to the 5-year average of 68%.

Economic trouble in China has taken a toll on cotton markets this week. Cotton prices are lower this week with South Delta cash prices finishing the week $1.86/cwt lower. Mississippi’s cotton crop looks relatively good so far this year with 66% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. The U.S. crop is rated as 57% good or excellent compared to 53% a year ago.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending July 10, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week slightly higher. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $151.43 for live sales, and $240.27 for dressed; respectively, down $0.17 and $0.39. Total volume sold was 30,000 head higher than a week ago but 25,000 head lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mixed across much of the U.S. this week with prices finishing the week higher in some areas and lower in other areas. Pasture conditions continue to look good this summer. The USDA rated 66% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, up 1% from last week and up from a rating of 56% good or excellent a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions are rated 77% good or excellent. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were averaging 272.50, while heavy steers were averaging 202.50. Oklahoma City feeder steers and heifers were down $2.00 to $4.00 this week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were down across the board this week. August live cattle were down about $6.20 on the week, while February live cattle were down $2.42. Feeder cattle were also lower with August futures down $6.18 from last Friday and January futures are down $5.85 on the week. Corn futures remained strong this week with July futures up $0.07 and December futures up $0.08.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices are lower on the week. Choice boxes averaged $242.21, down $9.88 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $238.96, down $9.87. The choice-select spread narrowed slightly from $3.26 a week ago to $3.25 this week.

WASDE

The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released today. Beef Production for 2015 was cut by 0.8% and 2016 beef production was increased by 0.5%. Corn ending stocks were reduced by 172 million bushels, mostly on lower production, although the reduction was not unexpected.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Several Changes Made in July Supply and Demand Estimates

The corn balance sheet for the 2015/16 crop currently growing in the field saw a few changes from last month. Harvested area was reduced by 600,000 acres to 81.1 million acres to reflect the June 30 acreage report. Yields were left unchanged. Production was revised down by 100 million bushels and beginning stocks were lowered by 97 million bushels. Ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop were revised down by 172 million bushels, mostly on lower beginning stocks and production. While there was a significant reduction in ending stocks, it was well within the range of expectations from market analysts. Other changes include a reduction in feed and residual use, an increase in ethanol use, and a reduction in exports. Global ending stocks were reduced by 5.2 million metric tons, with much of that coming from lower U.S. production.

The soybean balance sheet also had several changes from the June WASDE report. Carryover from the 2014/15 crop was reduced by 75 million bushels as demand for soybean meal and exports remains strong. Acres were increased by 700,000 to reflect changes in the June 30 acreage report while yield remained unchanged. The crush for the 2015/16 crop was also increased by 10 million bushels to push ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop year down by 50 million bushels to 425 million bushels. As with corn, the ending stocks were well within the range of analyst expectations.

The 2015/16 wheat crop had several minor changes made to the balance sheet. Carryover was 41 million bushels higher mostly as a result of reduced feed use 2014/15. Yields for the 2015/16 crop were increased by 0.1 bu/acre and harvested acres were increased by half a million acres. Feed and residual use was increased by 5 million bushels and exports were increased by 30 million bushels, leaving ending stocks 28 million bushels higher. Global ending stocks were increased by 17.4 million tons to a new record high as a result of increased production as well as decreased consumption.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.