Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending September 25, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $128.47 for live sales, and $202.47 for dressed; respectively, down $6.60 and $10.78. Total volume sold was down 2,000 head from a week ago and 2,000 head higher than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were trading $4.00 to $9.00 lower than last week. Pasture conditions continue to decline across much of the U.S. during the last week of summer. The USDA rated 46% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, down 1% from last week and down 5% from a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions have declined the last few weeks and are rated 35% good or excellent, down 4% from a week ago. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $12.50 from a week ago, averaging $217.50, while heavy steers were averaging $167.50, down $10.00 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were both down across the board this week. October live cattle were down $2.23 on the week and $24.75 lower than a year ago, while February live cattle were down $1.63 from last week and down $24.73 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also lower with October futures down $0.70 from last Friday and down $48.50 from a year ago while March futures are up $1.25 on the week. Nearby corn futures are higher this week with December futures $0.12 higher while May futures are up $0.11.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $218.66, down $13.11 from a week ago and $20.96 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $214.37, down $8.97 from last week. The choice-select spread has narrowed significantly from $8.43 a week ago to $4.29 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

 

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending September 18, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $135.07 for live sales, and $213.25 for dressed; respectively, down $4.91 and $6.84. Total volume sold was up 75,000 head from a week ago and 5,000 head higher than last year. It should be noted, however that the large difference from a week ago was the result of a shortened week last week with Labor Day.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were trading around $7.00 to $10.00 lower than two weeks ago, but were closed last week so a price trend was not established. Pasture conditions continue to decline across much of the U.S. as summer draws to an end. The USDA rated 47% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, down 1% from last week and down 3% from a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions have declined the last few weeks and are rated 39% good or excellent, down 4% from a week ago. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down from a week ago, averaging $230.00, while heavy steers were averaging $177.50, up $5.00 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were both down across the board this week. October live cattle were down $4.60 on the week and $19.75 lower than a year ago, while February live cattle were down $3.53 from last week and down $21.33 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also mixed with October futures down $9.92 from last Friday and down $43.68 from a year ago while March futures are up $8.95 on the week. Nearby corn futures are lower this week with December futures $0.10 lower while more distant contracts are higher with March futures up $0.06.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $231.77, down $6.68 from a week ago and $14.46 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $223.34, down $4.71 from last week. The choice-select spread has narrowed some from $10.40 a week ago to $8.43 this week.

September Cattle on Feed

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (September 18). The report revealed that 9.986 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on September 1, 2015. Placements into feedlots during the month of August totaled 1.632 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.588 million head. While the total number of cattle on feed and marketings numbers were relatively close to expectations, placements came in well below even the lowest analyst’s expectations.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

September Cattle on Feed Report Recap

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (September 18). The report revealed that 9.986 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on September 1, 2015. Placements into feedlots during the month of August totaled 1.632 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.588 million head.

[ … For detailed numbers and charts CLICK HERE … ]

Placements totaled 1.632 million head, a decrease of 5.39% from August 2014 and a 18.57% decrease from the five-year average of 2010 to 2014. Market analyst expected placements to come in at 1.730 million head, so the reported value was much lower than anticipated — below even the lowest analyst’s expectation. This month’s numbers continued the trend of declining lightweight placements, with all weight classes except for cattle larger than 800 pounds coming in lower than a year ago nationally. Cattle weighing 600-699 pounds saw the largest year-over year drop with a 24.6% decline in placements while cattle larger than 800 pounds saw a 3.9% year-over-year increase.

Cattle marketed in August totaled 1.588 million head, down 6.15% versus last year and down 16.37% compared to the average from 2010 to 2014. Pre-report expectations called for marketings to be 6.2% lower than the same period last year, so they were very close to expectations.

The total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity totaled 9.986 million head, up 2.75% versus September 1, 2014 but 2.33% lower than the five-year average.  Market analysts expected a 3.7% year-over-year increase in cattle inventories, so the reported value was somewhat lower than expectations but still within the range of analysts’ expectations.

Crop Market Update: September 15, 2015

Corn is higher this week following the release of the USDA’s newest production estimates on Friday morning. Greenville cash corn is currently trading $0.31 higher than a week ago at $3.83/bu on Friday. December futures contracts are also $0.27 higher on the week. The USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report is currently showing the U.S. corn crop rated as 68% good or excellent while Mississippi’s corn crop is rated as 66% good or excellent. This is slightly behind a year ago when the U.S. crop was rated 74% good or excellent. Mississippi’s corn harvest is ahead of the 5-year average with 90% of the crop harvested compared 74% a year ago and a 5-year average of 86%.

Soybean markets are higher this week as well, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.24 higher at $9.19/bu on Monday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $10.13/bu. Nearby November soybean futures are trading $0.18 lower than a week ago. Mississippi soybean progress is ahead of last year with 34% of the state’s soybeans harvested compared to 27% a year ago and a 5-year average of 30%. Mississippi’s soybeans are rated as 67% good or excellent while the U.S. soybean crop is rated as 61% good or excellent compared to 72% a year ago.

December wheat futures are up $0.34 from a week ago while Greenville wheat prices up $0.33 at $4.56/bu on Monday. A year ago, December wheat futures were trading for $4.99 while Greenville cash wheat was selling for $4.49/bu.

Cotton prices finished the week stronger with South Delta cash prices trading $0.44/cwt higher than a week ago. Cotton futures are also higher with October Cotton futures closing at $63.51, up $0.44/cwt from last week. Mississippi’s cotton crop is rated at 58% in good or excellent condition. The condition of the U.S. crop has declined in recent weeks with 52% good or excellent but is slightly better compared to 49% a year ago. Cotton harvest is underway in Mississippi as well as a few other states with 1% of Mississippi’s crop harvested and 4% of the U.S. crop harvested.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending September 11, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $139.98 for live sales, and $220.09 for dressed; respectively, down $1.22 and $2.03. Total volume sold was down 55,000 head from a week ago and 91,000 head lower than last year. It should be noted, however that we had one fewer slaughter day this week than last with Labor Day weekend.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder auctions were closed due to Labor Day, so a price trend was not established. Pasture conditions continue to decline across much of the U.S. as summer draws to an end. The USDA rated 48% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, down 2% from last week and unchanged from a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions have declined the last few weeks and are rated 43% good or excellent, down 3% from a week ago. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were higher than last week, averaging $240.00, while heavy steers were averaging $172.50.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were both mixed across contracts this week. October live cattle were unchanged on the week and $16.05 lower than a year ago, while February live cattle were down $0.13 from last week and down $17.05 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also mixed with October futures down $0.40 from last Friday and down $30.88 from a year ago while March futures are up $0.42 on the week. Corn futures are higher this week with December futures $0.25 higher and March futures up $0.08.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $2438.45, down $2.61 from a week ago and $12.63 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $228.05, down $1.62 from last week. The choice-select spread has narrowed some from $11.39 a week ago to $10.40 this week.

WASDE

The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released this week. Beef Production for 2015 was reduced by 210 million pounds or 0.89% from last month and 2016 beef production was increased by 95 million pounds or approximately 0.39%. Corn yields were lowered by 1.3 bu/acre to 167.5 and ending stocks were lowered by 121 million bushels.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Corn falls in line with expectations but soybeans exceed expectations in latest USDA reports

The corn balance sheet for the 2015/16 crop saw several small changes from the August release. Ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop were revised down by 121 million bushels as a result of lower production. Acreage remained unchanged from last month, but yields were lowered by 1.3 bu/acre to 167.5. The yield estimate is just 0.10 of a bushel below what market analysts were expecting. With the lower yields, production was also lowered by 101 million bushels, again relatively close to industry expectations. To go along with lower production, feed use was decreased by 25 million bushels, while exports and ethanol use remained unchanged. Global ending stocks were decreased substantially from 195.02 million metric tons  to 189.69 million metric tons. Reductions in global production make up most of the difference. Mississippi corn yields are unchanged from last month’s estimate of 184 bu/acre.

The soybean balance sheet also had several changes from the August WASDE report. Soybean harvested acres were unchanged from a month ago while yields were increased by 0.2 bu/acre. The increase in yields gave us a 19 million bushel increase in total production from a month ago. All of those numbers came in higher than expected and matched the maximum analyst expectation. Despite higher production numbers, ending stocks were reduced by 20 million bushels as a result of lower carryover from the 2014/15 crop and a 10 million bushel increase in soybean crush. Global ending stocks were reduced from 86.88 million metric tons to 84.98 million metric tons. Mississippi soybean yield was left unchanged from last month at 48 bu/acre.

 

The 2015/16 wheat crop had much fewer changes made to the balance sheet. Yields and production were unchanged from last month, as were all domestic disappearance numbers. Exports were reduced by 25 million bushels, leaving ending stocks 25 million bushels higher.

The cotton balance sheet saw several revisions from a month ago as well. Harvested acres were increased by 280,000 acres from last month while yields were reduced by 6 pounds/acre from last month’s estimates. As a result, production was increased by 350,000 bales from a month ago. Along with increased production, exports were increased by 200,000 bales and 50,000 bales were unaccounted for, leaving ending stocks 100,000 million bales higher. Global cotton ending stocks were increased by 1.07 million bales. Despite recent concerns surrounding China’s economy, they saw no change in domestic cotton consumption or imports. Mississippi cotton yields were lowered by 9 pounds/acre from 1,228 pounds/acre to 1219 pounds/acre.

Crop Market Update: September 8, 2015

Corn is lower this week leading up to the release of the USDA’s newest production estimates on Friday morning. Greenville cash corn is currently trading $0.12 lower than a week ago at $3.52/bu on Friday. December futures contracts are also $0.12 lower on the week. The USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report is currently showing the U.S. corn crop rated as 68% good or excellent while Mississippi’s corn crop is rated as 66% good or excellent. This is slightly behind a year ago when the U.S. crop was rated 74% good or excellent. Mississippi’s corn harvest is ahead of the 5-year average with 83% of the crop harvested compared 58% a year ago and a 5-year average of 76%.

Soybean markets are lower this week as well, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.09 lower at $8.95/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $11.10/bu. Nearby November soybean futures are trading $0.12 lower than a week ago. Mississippi soybean progress is ahead of last year with 25% of the state’s soybeans harvested compared to 16% a year ago and a 5-year average of 19%. Mississippi’s soybeans are rated as 65% good or excellent while the U.S. soybean crop is rated as 64% good or excellent compared to 72% a year ago.

December wheat futures are down $0.22 from a week ago while Greenville wheat prices are also down $0.16 at $4.23/bu on Friday. A year ago, December wheat futures were trading for $5.36 while Greenville cash wheat was selling for $4.86/bu.

Cotton prices have taken a tumble this week with South Delta cash prices finishing the week $0.76/cwt lower than a week ago. Cotton futures are also lower with October Cotton futures closing at $63.83, down $0.76/cwt from last week. Mississippi’s cotton crop is rated at 59% in good or excellent condition. The condition of the U.S. crop has declined in recent weeks with 53% good or excellent but is slightly better compared to 49% a year ago.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local crop prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending September 4, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $141.20 for live sales, and $222.12 for dressed; respectively, down $2.20 and $4.85. Total volume sold was up 11,000 head from a week ago and 38,000 head higher than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City lightweight steers were $1.00 to $8.00 lower while heavy steers were steady to $3.00 lower. Pasture conditions continue to decline across much of the U.S. as summer draws to an end. The USDA rated 50% of U.S. pastures in good or excellent condition this week, down 1% from last week and up from a rating of 48% good or excellent a year ago. Mississippi pasture conditions have declined the last few weeks and are rated 46% good or excellent, down 2% from a week ago. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down sharply from last week, averaging $212.50, while volume on heavy steers was too light for a good quote.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were both down across the board this week. October live cattle were down $3.47 on the week and $19.53 lower than a year ago, while February live cattle were down $3.17 from last week and down $16.43 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were lower with October futures down $3.70 from last Friday and down $29.20 from a year ago while March futures are down $4.72 on the week. Corn futures are lower this week with December futures $0.12 lower and March futures also down $0.11.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $241.06, down $2.91 from a week ago and $6.56 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $229.67, down $3.82 from last week. The choice-select spread has continued to widen from $10.48 a week ago to $11.39 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.