Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending October 23, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week higher. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $130.00 for live sales, and $207.10 for dressed; respectively, up $6.80 and $8.54. Total volume sold was down 17,000 head from a week ago and 20,000 head lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mixed across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were trading steady to $2.00 lower than last week. Drought continues to plague Mississippi pasture conditions with 24% rated good or excellent, while 43% of Mississippi pastures are rated poor or very poor. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were up $7.50 from a week ago, averaging $207.50, while heavy steers were averaging $166.50, up $12.50 from last week.

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Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were both up across the board this week. December live cattle were up $3.80 on the week and $24.18 lower than a year ago at $143.35, while February live cattle were up $3.33 from last week and down $22.15 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also higher with November futures up $2.47 from last Friday and down $42.43 from a year ago at $192.48 while March futures are up $1.50 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.03 from a week ago while May futures are down $0.01.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are higher compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $216.03, up $6.57 from a week ago and $33.47 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $209.77, up $5.44 from last week. The choice-select spread widened some from $5.13 a week ago to $6.26 this week.

October Cattle on Feed

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (October 23, 2015). The report revealed that 10.218 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on October 1, 2015. Placements into feedlots during the month of September totaled 1.931 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.642 million head. All three numbers came in relatively close to analyst’s expectations.

October Cattle on Feed Report Recap

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (October 23, 2015). The report revealed that 10.218 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on October 1, 2015. Placements into feedlots during the month of September totaled 1.931 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.642 million head.

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Placements totaled 1.931 million head, a decrease of 4.12% from September 2014 and a 11.73% decrease from the five-year average from 2010 to 2014. Market analyst expected placements to be down 6.1%, so the reported value was higher than anticipated, although it was still within the range of analyst’s expectations. This month’s numbers continued the trend of declining lightweight placements, with all weight classes except for cattle larger than 800 pounds coming in lower than a year ago nationally. Cattle weighing 600-699 pounds saw the largest year-over year drop with a 17.1% decline in placements while cattle larger than 800 pounds saw a 7.8% year-over-year increase.

Cattle marketed in September totaled 1.642 million head, down 2.44% versus last year and down 4.4% compared to the average from 2010 to 2014. Pre-report expectations called for marketings to be 2.3% lower than the same period last year, so they were very close to expectations.

The total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity totaled 10.218 million head, up 2.33% versus October 1, 2014 but 3.88% lower than the five-year average.  Market analysts expected a 1.8% year-over-year increase in cattle inventories, so the reported value was slightly higher than expected but still within the range of analysts’ expectations.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending October 16, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week higher. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $123.20 for live sales, and $198.56 for dressed; respectively, up $4.68 and $8.56. Total volume sold was up 19,000 head from a week ago and 11,000 head higher than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly higher across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were trading $7.00 to $12.00 higher than last week. Drought continues to plague Mississippi pasture conditions with 28% rated good or excellent, while 37% of Mississippi pastures are rated poor or very poor. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were up $12.50 from a week ago, averaging $200.00, while heavy steers were averaging $154.00, up $3.50 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were both up across the board this week. December live cattle were up $2.23 on the week and $25.58 lower than a year ago at $139.55, while February live cattle were up $3.85 from last week and down $22.43 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also higher with November futures up $6.72 from last Friday and down $44.15 from a year ago at $190.00 while March futures are up $3.05 on the week. Nearby corn futures are down $0.05 from a week ago while May futures are down $0.06.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are higher compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $209.46, up $5.79 from a week ago and $39.80 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $204.33, up $6.14 from last week. The choice-select spread has narrowed slightly from $5.48 a week ago to $5.13 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Latest USDA reports reveal smaller harvests for most major crops

The corn balance sheet for the 2015/16 crop saw only minor changes from the September release. Ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop were revised down by 31 million bushels as a result of lower production. Acreage was lowered by 400,000 acres from last month, but yields were increased by 0.5 bu/acre to 168. The yield estimate is 0.9 bu/acre above what market analysts were expecting, but harvested acres were about 120,000 acres below what analysts were expecting. With the increased yields and lower harvested acres, production was lowered by 30 million bushels, roughly 50 million bushels higher than expected but still well within the range of analyst’s expectations. Demand for corn remained unchanged from a month ago. Global ending stocks were decreased from 189.69 million metric tons to 187.83 million metric tons. Global production was reduced by 5.5 million metric while consumption was also lowered to make up most of the difference. Mississippi corn yields are up a bushel from last month’s estimate at 185 bu/acre and production is expected to match last year’s production.

The soybean balance sheet had several changes from the September WASDE report. Soybean harvested acres were lowered by 1.1 million acres from a month ago while yields were increased by 0.1 bu/acre. The decrease in acreage gave us a 47 million bushel decrease in total production from a month ago. Yields were very close to expectations while harvested acres were about about 500,000 acres lower than expected. Ending stocks came in lower than a month ago but slightly higher than expected at 425 million bushels. U.S. crush was revised up by 10 million bushels while exports were reduced by 50 million bushels. Global ending stocks were increased from 84.98 million metric tons to 85.14 million metric tons. Mississippi soybean yield was lowered by 2 bu/acre from last month to 46 bu/acre.

 

The 2015/16 wheat crop had several changes made to the balance sheet. Yields were reduced by 0.5 bu/acre while harvested area was reduced by 1.4 million acres from a month ago. Feed and residual use was lowered 20 million bushel and exports were lowered by 50 million bushels. Those changes left ending stocks 14 million bushels lower than last month’s estimates. The ending stocks number was about 42 million bushels higher than expected.

The cotton balance sheet saw only minor revisions from a month ago. Harvested acres were left unchanged from last month while yields were reduced by 5 pounds/acre from last month’s estimates. As a result, production was lowered by 90,000 bales from a month ago. Exports and domestic use were unchanged, leaving ending stocks 100,000 bales lower than a month ago. Global cotton ending stocks were increased by 0.71 million bales. Mississippi cotton yields were lowered by 107 pounds/acre to 1,112 pounds/acre and the state’s total production was lowered by 70,000 bales from a month ago.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending October 9, 2015

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending October 9, 2015

 

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week mixed. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $118.52 for live sales, and $190.00 for dressed; respectively, down $0.09 and up $2.49. Total volume sold was down 14,000 head from a week ago and 5,000 head lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were trading $2.00 to $6.00 lower than last week. Mississippi pasture conditions have continued to decline the last few weeks with 30% rated good or excellent, while 33% of Mississippi pastures are rated poor or very poor. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $17.50 from a week ago, averaging $187.50, while heavy steers were averaging $150.50, down $7.00 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were both up across the board this week. December live cattle were up $5.82 on the week and $28.48 lower than a year ago, while February live cattle were up $3.97 from last week and down $27.70 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also higher with November futures up $12.93 from last Friday and down $55.83 from a year ago while March futures are up $12.28 on the week. Nearby corn futures are down $0.07 from a week ago while May futures are down $0.02.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $203.67, down $4.77 from a week ago and $41.59 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $198.19, down $6.99 from last week. The choice-select spread has widened from $3.26 a week ago to $5.48 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending October 2, 2015

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week at $118.61 for live sales, and $187.51 for dressed; respectively, down $9.86 and $14.96. Total volume sold was down 3,000 head from a week ago and 6,000 head lower than last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were trading $3.00 to $8.00 lower than last week. Mississippi pasture conditions have continued to decline the last few weeks and are rated 33% good or excellent, down 2% from a week ago. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $12.50 from a week ago, averaging $205.00, while heavy steers were averaging $157.50, down $10.00 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were both down across the board this week. October live cattle were down $13.60 on the week and $42.40 lower than a year ago, while February live cattle were down $3.75 from last week and down $32.28 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also lower with October futures down $8.90 from last Friday and down $65.08 from a year ago while March futures are down $9.82 on the week. Nearby corn futures are unchanged from a week ago while May futures are down $0.05.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $208.44, down $10.22 from a week ago and $29.75 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $205.18, down $9.19 from last week. The choice-select spread has narrowed from $4.29 a week ago to $3.26 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.