Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending February 26, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week higher. The five-area fed steer price ended the week averaging $130.66 for live sales, and $210.55 for dressed; respectively, up $0.66 and $0.92. Total volume sold was up 13,000 head from a week ago and up 11,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were steady to higher across much of the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were holding steady for lightweights and up $4.00 for heavier cattle. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were unchanged from a week ago, averaging $190.00, while heavy steers were averaging $143.00, up $5.50 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were higher this week. April live cattle were up $5.25 on the week and $14.10 lower than a year ago at $134.40, while August live cattle were up $3.18 from last week and down $21.43 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also higher on the week with March futures up $5.55 from last Friday and down $43.15 from a year ago at $156.00 while May futures are up $3.78 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.07 from a week ago while May futures are also up $0.06.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are up compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $216.51, up $2.67 from a week ago and $28.77 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $212.36, up $3.00 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed from $4.48 a week ago to $4.15 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending February 19, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week mixed. The five-area fed steer price ended the week averaging $130.00 for live sales, and $209.63 for dressed; respectively, down $1.70 and up $3.67. Total volume sold was down 23,000 head from a week ago and unchanged from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mixed across much of the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were down $5.50 for lightweights and up $3.00 for heavier cattle. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were up $2.50 from a week ago, averaging $190.00, while heavy steers were averaging $137.50, up $5.00 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were higher this week. April live cattle were up $5.25 on the week and $14.10 lower than a year ago at $134.40, while August live cattle were up $3.18 from last week and down $21.43 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also higher on the week with March futures up $5.55 from last Friday and down $43.15 from a year ago at $156.00 while May futures are up $3.78 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.07 from a week ago while May futures are also up $0.06.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $217.63, down $3.79 from a week ago and $25.63 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $214.12, down $4.76 from last week. The choice-select spread widened from $3.51 a week ago to $4.48 this week.

February Cattle on Feed

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (February 19, 2016). The report revealed that 10.709 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on February 1, 2016, down 0.04% from a year ago. Placements into feedlots during the month of January totaled 1.779 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.589 million head, down 0.56% and 2.22% from a year ago, respectively. All numbers were very close to analysts’ expectations

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

February Cattle on Feed Report Recap

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (February 19, 2016). The report revealed that 10.709 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on February 1, 2016. Placements into feedlots during the month of January totaled 1.779 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.589 million head.

[ … For detailed numbers and charts CLICK HERE … ]

Placements totaled 1.779 million head, a decrease of 0.56% from January 2015 and a 5.45% decrease from the five-year average from 2011 to 2015. Market analyst expected placements to be down 0.7%, so the reported value very close to expectations. This month’s numbers continue the trend of increasing heavy placements, with cattle larger than 800 pounds seeing a 2.7% year-over-year increase.

Cattle marketed in January totaled 1.589 million head, down 2.22% versus last year and down 10.68% compared to the average from 2011 to 2015. Pre-report expectations called for marketings to be 2.20% lower than the same period last year, so they were right where analysts anticipated they would be.

The total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity totaled 10.709 million head, down 0.04% versus February 1, 2015 and 4.12% lower than the five-year average.  Market analysts expected a 0.2% year-over-year decrease in cattle inventories, so the reported value came in slightly higher than expected but still very close to analysts’ expectations.

 

A National Look at Crop Insurance Subsidy Per Acre

 

Lots discussion of crop insurance subsidy these days.  Here is a breakdown of county average subsidy/acre in 2015.  The average for the county is a function of the crops grown in the county.  Generally highest values are in specialty crop regions. (Note some insurance programs are not reported by acre and are not included.)2015 subsidy per acre

Crop Insurance Subsidy Per Policy

It is crop insurance sign up time and I did a quick analysis of 2015 crop insurance subsidy per policy by crop for the entire U.S.  Note subsidy is a function of rates, coverage levels, unit structure, quantity and value of the crop.  What jumps out of this analysis is that specialty crops tend to top the list and that row crops are generally fairly far down the ranking.  But some other special crops also fall near the bottom of the list

 

Commodity Name Average Subsidy/Policy
Strawberries

$39,169

TOMATOES (FRESH MARKET)

$39,064

ONIONS

$36,845

Whole Farm Revenue Protection*

$34,666

COTTON EX LONG STAPLE

$27,797

POTATOES

$27,780

TOBACCO – CIGAR WRAPPER

$27,436

PRUNES

$25,498

MACADAMIA TREES

$24,928

PEPPERS

$24,302

APPLES

$23,881

MACADAMIA NUTS

$23,533

NURSERY – FIELD GROWN & CONTAINER

$22,292

Pistachios

$21,428

BANANA TREE

$19,029

MANDARINS/TANGERINES

$18,277

TABLE GRAPES

$17,388

TOBACCO – CIGAR BINDER

$16,363

ALMONDS

$16,324

SWEET POTATOES

$15,583

CULTIVATED WILD RICE

$14,133

CITRUS (TX) – RIO RED & STAR RUBY GRAPEFRUIT

$14,066

CABBAGE

$13,919

APRICOTS (PROCESSING)

$12,994

TOMATOES

$12,183

ALFALFA SEED

$12,066

CHERRIES

$11,535

PEACHES

$11,044

COTTON

$10,152

TOBACCO – FLUE CURED

$9,979

CLAMS

$9,840

BLUEBERRIES

$9,115

CUCUMBERS

$9,063

APRICOTS (FRESH)

$8,689

FIGS

$8,562

PECANS

$8,118

CITRUS TREES (FL) – ORANGE

$8,105

APICULTURE

$7,760

NECTARINES (FRESH)

$7,530

BEANS (DRY)

$7,104

LEMONS

$7,043

BEANS (FRESH MARKET)

$6,777

AVOCADOS

$6,696

GRASS SEED

$6,406

SWEET CORN (FRESH MARKET)

$6,294

PLUMS

$6,197

GRAPES

$6,116

SUNFLOWERS

$5,931

CORN

$5,847

CANOLA

$5,780

ORANGES

$5,575

PASTURE,RANGELAND,FORAGE

$5,552

CITRUS TREES (FL) – GRAPEFRUIT

$5,392

POPCORN

$5,344

PEANUTS

$5,175

WALNUTS

$5,068

PEAS (DRY)

$5,019

ANNUAL FORAGE

$5,002

TOBACCO – BURLEY

$4,887

Olives

$4,819

MINT

$4,661

BEANS (PROCESSING)

$4,459

CITRUS TREES (FL) – AVOCADO

$4,353

PAPAYA

$4,323

WHEAT

$4,277

BARLEY

$4,208

RAISINS

$4,173

MUSTARD

$4,160

SUGARCANE

$4,080

GRAPEFRUIT

$3,975

PEACHES (CLING PROCESSING)

$3,936

HYBRID SORGHUM SEED

$3,927

RICE

$3,902

BUCKWHEAT

$3,792

SUGAR BEETS

$3,715

CITRUS (TX) – LATE ORANGES

$3,605

CITRUS TREES (FL) – CARAMBOLA

$3,589

SAFFLOWER

$3,531

SOYBEANS

$3,525

GRAIN SORGHUM

$3,464

PEACHES (FREESTONE FRESH)

$3,392

SILAGE SORGHUM

$3,195

FORAGE PRODUCTION

$3,064

HYBRID CORN SEED

$2,917

CRANBERRIES

$2,826

SESAME

$2,684

PEAS (GREEN)

$2,670

TOBACCO – FIRE CURED

$2,664

TANGELOS

$2,529

PEARS

$2,468

PEACHES (FREESTONE PROCESSING)

$2,406

FLAX

$2,224

RYE

$2,099

CITRUS (TX) – RUBY RED GRAPEFRUIT

$1,991

MILLET

$1,929

BANANA

$1,858

CITRUS TREES (FL) – ALL OTHER CITRUS TREES

$1,645

COFFEE

$1,590

CHILE PEPPERS

$1,565

TANGORS

$1,483

SWEET CORN

$1,475

PUMPKINS

$1,317

CITRUS (TX) – EARLY & MIDSEASON ORANGES

$1,283

COFFEE TREE

$1,233

CITRUS TREES (FL) – MANGO

$954

Tangerine Trees

$837

Camelina

$831

FORAGE SEEDING

$786

OATS

$776

TOBACCO – DARK AIR

$748

CITRUS TREES (FL) – LIME

$497

TOBACCO – CIGAR FILLER

$373

PAPAYA TREE

$333

TOBACCO – MARYLAND

$44

* Note Whole Farm Revenue Insurance covers multiple commodities.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending February 12, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price ended the week averaging $131.70 for live sales, and $205.96 for dressed; respectively, down $0.50 and $4.04. Total volume sold was up 10,000 head from a week ago and up 7,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mixed across much of the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were up $11.00 for lightweights and down $3.00 to $4.00 for heavier cattle. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $5.00 from a week ago, averaging $187.50, while heavy steers were averaging $132.50, down $7.50 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were lower this week. February live cattle were down $5.93 on the week and $29.60 lower than a year ago at $130.00, while April live cattle were down $4.92 from last week and down $24.15 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were lower on the week with March futures down $2.55 from last Friday and down $53.43 from a year ago at $150.45 while May futures are down $3.85 on the week. Nearby corn futures are down $0.06 from a week ago while May futures are also down $0.07.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $217.63, down $4.21 from a week ago and $21.06 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $214.12, down $3.14 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed from $4.58 a week ago to $3.51 this week.

WASDE

The United States Department of Agriculture’s World Supply and Demand Estimates were released on Tuesday morning (February 9, 2016). Beef production for 2015 was revised down by 10 million pounds from last month’s estimate to 23.69 billion pounds. That number is up from 2014 when annual beef production was 24.25 billion pounds. Looking ahead to 2016, beef production is expected to be up 890 million pounds from last year at 24.58 billion pounds. Per capita consumption for 2016 was lowered slightly from 54.4 pounds per person to 54.3 pounds per person. On the crop balance sheet, corn ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop were revised up by 35 million bushels primarily due to a 50 million bushel reduction in exports.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Few Changes Made in Latest USDA Supply and Demand Report

The corn balance sheet for the 2015/16 crop saw few changes from the January release. Ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop were revised up by 35 million bushels as a result of lower disappearance. Yields were left unchanged at 168.4 bu/acre and total production was also unchanged at at 13.601 billion bushels. Feed use was also left unchanged while ethanol use was increased by 25 million bushels. Exports were reduced by 50 million bushels, leaving ending stocks at 1.837 billion bushels. Global ending stocks were decreased from 208.94 million metric tons to 208.81 million metric tons with increased global production but also increased global feed use.

The soybean balance sheet also very few changes from the January WASDE report. Soybean harvested acres and yields were left unchanged at 81.8 million acres and 48 bu/acre, respectively. Soybean crush was reduced by 10 million bushels while exports were left unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks were 10 million bushels higher at 450 million bushels. Global ending stocks were increased from 79.28 million metric tons to 80.42 million metric tons with much of that increase coming from an increase in global production, particularly in Argentina.

The 2015/16 wheat crop balance sheet had a few minor changes. Ending stocks for wheat came in at 966 million bushels, which is 25 million bushels higher than last month. Seed use, feed use, and food and residual use was all left unchanged while exports were reduced by 25 million bushels. Global wheat ending stocks were increased from 232.04 million metric tons to 238.87 million metric tons. Much of the difference was a result of decreased global demand. China alone saw a 4 million metric ton decrease in domestic wheat use.

The cotton balance sheet also saw few revisions this month. Cotton production an yields were unchanged from last month’s estimates with production remaining at 12.94 million bales. Domestic use was also unchanged from last month, while exports were reduced by 500,000 bales. That leaves ending stocks up 500,000 bales from a month ago. Global cotton ending stocks were increased by 1.22 million bales as a result of lower global domestic use primarily from China, Pakistan, and India.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending February 5, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week higher. The five-area fed steer price ended the week averaging $132.20 for live sales, and $210.00 for dressed; respectively, up $1.20 and $0.84. Total volume sold was down 33,000 head from a week ago and down 13,000 head from last year. The reduction in volume this week is a result of the blizzard that hit Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa earlier in the week that prevented many feeders from getting their cattle to market.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were steady to slightly lower across much of the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were steady to $5 lower than a week ago for most weight classes. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were unchanged from a week ago, averaging $192.50, while heavy steers were averaging $140.00, also unchanged from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were mixed this week. February live cattle were up $1.13 on the week and $20.10 lower than a year ago at $135.93, while April live cattle were up $0.75 from last week and down $16.95 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were lower on the week with March futures down $3.38 from last Friday and down $47.15 from a year ago at $153.00 while May futures are down $1.90 on the week. Nearby corn futures are down $0.06 from a week ago while May futures are also down $0.06.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are up slightly compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $221.40, up $0.44 from a week ago and $19.91 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $216.59, up $0.67 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed from $4.81 a week ago to $4.58 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending January 29, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week higher. The five-area fed steer price ended the week averaging $131.00 for live sales, and $209.16 for dressed; respectively, up $4.38 and $7.16. Total volume sold was down 2,000 head from a week ago and up 4,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mixed across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were $3 to $10 higher than a week ago for most weight classes. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were up $2.50 from a week ago, averaging $192.50, while heavy steers were averaging $140.00, up $12.50 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were mixed this week. February live cattle were up $1.90 on the week and $20.05 lower than a year ago at $134.80, while April live cattle were down $0.53 from last week and down $18.78 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were lower on the week with March futures down $2.93 from last Friday and down $48.98 from a year ago at $156.38 while May futures are down $3.98 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.01 from a week ago while May futures are also up $0.02.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $221.40, down $7.33 from a week ago and $25.29 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $216.59, down $6.72 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed from $5.42 a week ago to $4.81 this week.

January Cattle Inventory:

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their Bi-annual Cattle Inventory report Friday afternoon (January 29, 2016). The total U.S. inventory of all cattle and calves 92 million head as of January 1, 2016, a 3 percent increase from a year ago. Beef replacement heifers in the U.S. were also up 3 percent from a year ago while beef cows were up 4% from a year ago.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.