Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending April 29, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle down this week. The five-area fed steer price for the week of April 21-28 averaged $123.87 for live sales, and $194.50 for dressed; respectively, down $1.71 and $10.96. Total volume sold was up 3,000 head from a week ago and up 24,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were $11.00 lower for lightweights and $3.00 lower for heavier cattle. Mississippi pasture conditions are relatively good this spring with 71% rated good or excellent, up 1% from a week ago. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $2.50 from a week ago, averaging $160.00, while heavy steers were averaging $127.50, down $1.50 from last week.

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Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were mixed this week. June live cattle were up $0.35 on the week and $34.60 lower than a year ago at $114.80, while August live cattle were up $1.08 from last week and down $35.55 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were lower this week with May futures down $1.88 from last Friday and down $73.45 from a year ago at $140.08 while August futures are down $1.60 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.20 from a week ago at $3.91 while September futures are up $0.17.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $215.51, down $6.76 from a week ago and $41.43 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $206.31, down $6.96 from last week. The choice-select spread widened from $9.00 a week ago to $9.20 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Crop Market Update: April 26, 2016

Corn is lower this week with Greenville cash corn currently trading $0.07 lower than a week ago and $0.09 lower than a year ago at $3.83/bu on Friday. May futures contracts are also $0.07 lower on the week at $3.72/bu. Mississippi producers have 76% of the state’s corn crop in the ground, slightly ahead of last year’s pace but behind the 5-year average of 83%. Favorable planting conditions have put U.S. producers well ahead of average, with 30% of the U.S. corn crop in the ground compared to a 5-year average of 16%.

Soybean markets are trading higher this week, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.31 higher at $9.94/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $10.00/bu. Nearby May soybean futures are trading $0.31 higher than a week ago. Mississippi producers are right on pace in planting soybeans with 25% of the state’s crop in the ground compared to a 5-year average of 27%. Producers across the U.S. have just begun planting soybeans with 3% of the crop in the ground nationally.

May wheat futures are unchanged from a week ago while Greenville wheat prices are also unchanged on the week at $4.52/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville cash wheat was selling for $5.11/bu. Mississippi’s wheat crop is in mixed condition so far this year with 12% rated poor or very poor and 48% rated good or excellent. Nationally, the wheat crop is in relatively good condition with 59% of the U.S crop rated good or excellent, much better than last year when 42% of the U.S. crop was rated good or excellent.

Cotton prices finished the week up sharply with South Delta cash prices trading $4.16/cwt higher than a week ago at $64.19/cwt and $0.05/cwt lower than a year ago. Nearby cotton futures are also lower with May Cotton futures closing at $63.08, down $3.05/cwt from last week. Mississippi producers have currently planted about 6% of the state’s cotton crop, slightly ahead of a year ago and slightly behind the 5-year average of 7%.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local cash prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending April 22, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle down this week. The five-area fed steer price for the week of April 14-21 averaged $125.58 for live sales, and $205.46 for dressed; respectively, down $8.39 and $8.87. Total volume sold was up 39,000 head from a week ago and up 43,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were $10.00 lower for lightweights and $10.00 to $11.00 lower for heavier cattle. Mississippi pasture conditions are relatively good this spring with 70% rated good or excellent, unchanged from a week ago. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $17.50 from a week ago, averaging $162.50, while heavy steers were averaging $129.00, down $8.50 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were lower this week. June live cattle were down $7.58 on the week and $36.73 lower than a year ago at $114.45, while August live cattle were down $6.55 from last week and down $38.15 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also lower this week with May futures down $8.25 from last Friday and down $71.68 from a year ago at $154.80 while August futures are down $9.42 on the week. Nearby corn futures are down $0.06 from a week ago at $3.71 while September futures are down $0.07.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are higher compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $222.27, up $0.76 from a week ago and $36.93 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $213.27, up $1.31 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed from $9.55 a week ago to $9.00 this week.

April Cattle on Feed

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (April 22, 2016). The report revealed that 10.853 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on April 1, 2016, up 0.52% from a year ago. Placements into feedlots during the month of March totaled 1.892 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.747 million head, up 4.59% and 7.11% from a year ago, respectively. All numbers were well within the range of analysts’ expectations.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

April Cattle on Feed Report Recap

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (April 22, 2016). The report revealed that 10.853 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on April 1, 2016. Placements into feedlots during the month of March totaled 1.892 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.747 million head.

[ … For detailed numbers and charts CLICK HERE … ]

Placements totaled 1.892 million head, an increase of 4.59% from March 2015 and a 2.83% increase from the five-year average from 2011 to 2015. Market analyst expected placements to be up 7.0%, so the reported value came in slightly below expectations. This month’s numbers continue the trend of increasing heavy placements, with cattle larger than 800 pounds seeing a 6.9% year-over-year increase.

Cattle marketed in March totaled 1.747 million head, up 7.11% versus last year and down 3.15% compared to the average from 2011 to 2015. Pre-report expectations called for marketings to be 6.9% higher than the same period last year, so they close to where analysts anticipated they would be.

The total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity totaled 10.853 million head, up 0.52% versus April 1, 2015 and 1.79% lower than the five-year average.  Market analysts expected a 0.9% year-over-year increase in cattle inventories, so the reported value came in slightly lower than expected but still well within the range of analysts’ expectations.

 

Regional Differences in Crop Insurance Base Rates

Base county rates reflect the starting point for crop insurance rates for an insured crop in a particular county.  A particular insured unit’s rate will be derived by adjusting the base county rate to reflect yield versus revenue coverage, coverage level, unit structure, and unit APH relative to base county yield.  Differences in base county rates reflect differences in yield risk derived from historical crop insurance losses.  Figures 1-4 reflect the 2016 base rates for corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans.  A lower base rate reflects a less risky region.  Often large contiguous areas have similar risk levels.  Also, a low yield risk crop such as rice has generally lower rates than other crops.

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Figure 4.
Figure 4.

Crop Market Update: April 19, 2016

Corn is higher this week as planting gets underway across much of the U.S. Greenville cash corn is currently trading $0.17 higher than a week ago and $0.05 lower than a year ago at $3.91/bu on Friday. May futures contracts are also $0.17 higher on the week at $3.79/bu. Mississippi producers have 64% of the state’s corn crop in the ground, well behind the 5-year average of 75%. Nationally, producers have about 13% of the corn crop in the ground, ahead of the 5-year average of 8%.

Soybean markets are also trading higher this week, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.39 higher at $9.63/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $9.90/bu. Nearby May soybean futures are trading $0.39 higher than a week ago. As of Sunday, Mississippi producers had 19% of their soybeans planted, slightly behind the 5-year average of 20%.

May wheat futures are unchanged from a week ago while Greenville wheat prices are also unchanged on the week at $4.45/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville cash wheat was selling for $5.01/bu. Mississippi’s wheat crop condition may have been adversely affected by the wet weather this spring with 12% rated poor or very poor and 41% rated good or excellent. This compares to 57% of the U.S. wheat crop rated good or excellent. Currently, 33% of the state’s wheat crop is headed out, well behind the 5-year average of 46% but ahead of last year when only 23% of the state’s wheat was headed out.

Cotton prices finished the week slightly lower with South Delta cash prices trading $0.04/cwt lower than a week ago at $60.03/cwt and $3.31/cwt lower than a year ago. Nearby cotton futures are also lower with May Cotton futures closing at $60.03, down $0.04/cwt from last week. Cotton planting has begun in the state, with about 3 percent of the state’s crop in the ground. That is right on pace with the 5-year average. Nationally, cotton planting is slightly behind normal with 7% of the crop in the ground compared to a 5-year average of 10%.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local cash prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending April 15, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were steady this week. The five-area fed steer price for the week of April 7-14 averaged $133.97 for live sales, and $214.33 for dressed; respectively, up $0.15 and down $0.14. Total volume sold was up 13,000 head from a week ago and up 15,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mostly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were $4.00 lower for lightweights and $1.00 to $2.00 lower for heavier cattle. Mississippi pasture conditions are relatively good this spring with 70% rated good or excellent. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $10.00 from a week ago, averaging $180.00, while heavy steers were averaging $137.50, unchanged from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were lower this week. April live cattle were down $3.07 on the week and $26.38 lower than a year ago at $131.43, while August live cattle were down $1.65 from last week and down $28.78 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also lower this week with April futures down $1.10 from last Friday and down $58.10 from a year ago at $154.80 while August futures are down $2.70 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.16 from a week ago at $3.77 while September futures are up $0.14.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are higher compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $221.51, up $5.30 from a week ago and $37.51 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $211.96, up $5.18 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed slightly from $9.43 a week ago to $9.55 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Several Small Changes in April WASDE Report

The corn balance sheet for the 2015/16 crop saw a few changes in disappearance from the March release. Feed use was reduced by 50 million bushels while ethanol use was increased by 25 million bushels. Ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop were estimated to be 1.862 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from last month’s estimate. Exports were left unchanged at 1.65 billion bushels. Global ending stocks were increased from 206.97 million metric tons to 208.91 million metric tons with increased global production as well as increased domestic feed use being the primary drivers for the change.

 The soybean balance sheet also very few changes from the March WASDE report. Soybean harvested acres and yields were left unchanged at 81.8 million acres and 48 bu/acre, respectively. Soybean exports were increased by 15 million bushels from a month ago while crush was left unchanged. Ending stocks were 15 million bushels lower at 445 million bushels. Global ending stocks were increased from 78.87 million metric tons to 79.02 million metric tons with much of that decrease coming from a reduction in global soybean crush, particularly in the European Union.

 The 2015/16 wheat crop balance sheet was left mostly unchanged. Feed and residual use was lowered by 10 million bushels, while all other disappearance was left unchanged. Ending stocks for wheat came in at 976 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from a month ago. Global wheat ending stocks were raised from 237.59 million metric tons to 239.26 million metric tons. Much of the difference was a result of decreased global feed use.

 The cotton balance sheet saw a few minor revisions this month. Cotton production was lowered by 50,000 bales as a result of lower yields, production at 12.87 million bales. Domestic use and exports were unchanged from last month, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 3.5 million bales, down 100,000 bales from last month’s estimates. Global cotton ending stocks were reduced by 1.12 million bales as a result of lower global production and lower beginning stocks.

Moving on to markets, corn has rebounded this following the bearish Prospective Plantings report released on March 31. Greenville cash corn is currently trading $0.08 higher than a week ago and $0.25 lower than a year ago at $3.74/bu on Friday. May futures contracts are also $0.08 higher on the week at $3.62/bu. Mississippi producers have 51% of the state’s corn crop in the ground, slightly behind last year’s pace and well behind the 5-year average of 63%.

Soybean markets are lower this week, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.01 lower at $9.24/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $9.82/bu. Nearby May soybean futures are trading $0.01 lower than a week ago.

May wheat futures are down $0.16 from a week ago while Greenville wheat prices are also down $0.16 at $4.45/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville cash wheat was selling for $5.36/bu. Mississippi’s wheat crop looks good so far this year with only 13% rated poor or very poor and 41% rated good or excellent

Cotton prices finished the week higher with South Delta cash prices trading $0.87/cwt higher than a week ago at $60.07/cwt and $5.41/cwt lower than a year ago. Cotton futures are also higher with May Cotton futures closing at $60.07, up $0.87/cwt from last week. This is the first time cotton has been above $60.00 since mid-February.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local cash prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending April 8, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were mixed this week. The five-area fed steer price for the week of March 31-April 7 averaged $133.82 for live sales, and $214.47 for dressed; respectively, up $0.70 and down $0.37. Total volume sold was down 7,000 head from a week ago and up 33,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were also mixed across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were $3.00 to $4.00 lower for lightweights and $1.00 to $2.00 higher for heavier cattle. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were unchanged from a week ago, averaging $190.00, while heavy steers were averaging $137.50, down $3.50 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were mixed this week. April live cattle were up $1.50 on the week and $24.30 lower than a year ago at $134.50, while August live cattle were unchanged from last week and down $26.65 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also mixed this week with April futures up $0.15 from last Friday and down $56.33 from a year ago at $155.90 while August futures are down $0.88 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.08 from a week ago at $3.61 while September futures are up $0.06.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $216.21, down $6.25 from a week ago and $41.29 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $206.78, down $6.13 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed slightly from $9.55 a week ago to $9.43 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending April 1, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle finished the week lower. The five-area fed steer price for the week of March 24-31 averaged $133.12 for live sales, and $214.84 for dressed; respectively, down $2.89 and $2.86. Total volume sold was down 5,000 head from a week ago and up 17,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were mixed across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City feeder cattle were steady to $1.00 higher for lightweights and mostly steady for heavier cattle. In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $3.50 from a week ago, averaging $190.00, while heavy steers were averaging $141.00, down $10.00 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were mostly lower this week. April live cattle were down $2.85 on the week and $30.03 lower than a year ago at $133.00, while August live cattle were down $1.28 from last week and down $30.28 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also lower this week with April futures down $0.07 from last Friday and down $64.63 from a year ago at $155.75 while August futures are also down $0.07 on the week. Nearby corn futures are down $0.16 from a week ago at $3.53 while September futures are down $0.17.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are down compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $222.46, down $4.16 from a week ago and $32.09 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $212.91, down $4.89 from last week. The choice-select spread widened from $8.82 a week ago to $9.55 this week.

USDA Prospective Plantings Report

The United States Department of Agriculture’s Prospective Plantings Report was released on Thursday morning (March 31, 2016). The plantings report revealed that U.S. producers intend to plant 93.601 million acres of corn this summer, up 6 percent from last year’s 87.999 million acres. Mississippi producers plan to plant 800,000 acres of corn this summer, up 57% from last year when 510,000 acres of corn were planted. Mississippi hay acres are expected to be 20,000 acres higher this year at 700,000 acres.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.