June USDA reports show more corn, soybean acres and higher stocks than previously expected

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released its June 30 Acreage Report and the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report Thursday morning (June 30, 2016). Corn acres planted in the U.S. were revised up by more than 500,000 acres from March’s prospective plantings report with 94.148 million acres of corn estimated to have been planted this spring. Pre-report estimates were expecting a decrease in planted aces with an average expectation of 92.9 million acres. The USDA estimate came in higher than even the highest analyst expectation. Mississippi producers are estimated to have planted 720,000 acres of corn this year, a 41% increase from a year ago but about 80,000 acres fewer than the March estimate. Corn stocks on June 1 totaled 4.72 billion bushels, a 6% increase from a year ago and well above pre-report expectations of 4.528 billion bushels.

Soybean acres were also revised up by just over 800,000 acres from March’s estimates with U.S. producers estimated to have planted 83.037 million acres of soybeans. This came in well below the average pre-report estimate, but was still well within the range of expectations. Mississippi producers are estimated to have planted 2.05 million acres of soybeans this year, an 11% decrease from a year ago but about 50,000 acres more than the March estimate. Soybean stocks on June 1 totaled 870 million bushels, a 39% increase from a year ago and again well above pre-report expectations of 829 million bushels.

Wheat acres were also revised up by more than 1.2 million acres from March’s estimates with U.S. producers estimated to have planted 50.816 million acres of wheat. This came in well above the average pre-report estimate, but was still well within the range of expectations. Mississippi producers are estimated to have planted 80,000 acres of wheat this year, a 47% decrease from a year ago and 10,000 fewer acres than the March estimate. Wheat stocks on June 1 totaled 981 million bushels, a 30% increase from a year ago and very close to expectations.

Cotton acres were revised up by 461,000 acres from March’s estimates with U.S. producers estimated to have planted 10.023 million acres of cotton, a 17% increase from a year ago. Mississippi producers are estimated to have planted 450,000 acres of cotton this year, a 41% increase from a year ago and unchanged from the March estimate.

Rice acres were revised up by 148,000 acres from March’s estimates with U.S. producers estimated to have planted 3.212 million acres of rice, a 23% increase from a year ago. Mississippi producers are estimated to have planted 200,000 acres of rice this year, a 33% increase from a year ago and 20,000 fewer acres than the March estimate.

 

Crop Market Update: June 27, 2016

Corn is down sharply this week with Greenville cash corn currently trading $0.53 lower than a week ago and $0.15 lower than a year ago at $3.93/bu on Friday. July futures contracts are $0.53 lower on the week at $3.85/bu. Mississippi producers have 85% of the state’s corn crop silking, ahead of last year’s pace and ahead of the 5-year average of 78%. Mississippi’s corn crop condition remains steady with 64% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. Favorable growing conditions have the U.S. corn crop looking good with 75% of the crop rated in good or excellent condition.

Soybean markets are trading lower this week, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.57 lower at $10.95/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $10.32/bu. Nearby July soybean futures are trading $0.51 lower than a week ago. Mississippi’s soybean crop condition is steady with 66% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition, a 1% decrease from last week. The U.S. soybean crop looks good overall with 72% of the nation’s soybean crop rated in good or excellent condition.

July wheat futures are down $0.27 from a week ago at $4.54 while Greenville wheat prices are also down $0.26 on the week at $4.45/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville cash wheat was selling for $5.52/bu. Mississippi’s wheat harvest is wrapping up with 95% of the state’s wheat crop harvested, right at last year’s pace and the 5-year average of 95%. Nationally, the wheat crop is in relatively good condition with 62% of the U.S crop rated good or excellent, much better than last year when 41% of the U.S. crop was rated good or excellent. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is slightly ahead of schedule with 45% of the U.S. wheat crop harvested compared to a 5-year average of 41%.

Cotton prices finished the week lower with South Delta cash prices trading $1.42/cwt lower than a week ago at $64.33/cwt and $1.63/cwt lower than a year ago. Nearby cotton futures are lower with July Cotton futures closing at $64.50, down $0.07/cwt from last week. Mississippi producers currently have about 54% of the state’s cotton crop squaring, ahead of a year ago and ahead of the 5-year average of 51%. This week 57% of Mississippi’s cotton crop is rated in good or excellent condition while 56% of the U.S. crop is in good or excellent condition. Nationally, 29% of the cotton crop is squaring, slightly behind the 5-year average of 33%.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local cash prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending June 24, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were lower this week. The five-area fed steer price for the week of June 16-June 23 averaged $116.09 for live sales, and $187.82 for dressed; respectively, down $4.94 and $7.21. Total volume sold was up 5,000 head from a week ago and up 53,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City 500-550 pound steers were down $9.00 while heavier 750-800 pound steers were down $4.00. Mississippi pasture were steady this week with 63% rated good or excellent, unchanged from a week ago.  In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $10.00 from a week ago, averaging $135.00, while heavy steers were averaging $112.50, down $7.50 from last week.

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Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were mixed this week. June live cattle were down $2.05 on the week and $33.90 lower than a year ago at $114.50, while August live cattle were down $1.65 from last week and down $37.68 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were higher this week with August futures up $2.47 from last Friday and down $77.60 from a year ago at $139.65 while October futures are up $2.03 on the week. Nearby corn futures are down $0.52 from a week ago at $3.85 while September futures are also down $0.53.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are lower compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $216.82, down $8.71 from a week ago and $37.49 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $198.42, down $4.12 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed from $22.99 a week ago to $18.40 this week.

June Cattle on Feed

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (June 24, 2016). The report revealed that 10.799 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on June 1, 2016, up 2.16% from a year ago. Placements into feedlots during the month of May totaled 1.884 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.794 million head, up 9.60% and 4.85% from a year ago, respectively. All numbers came in very close to analysts’ expectations.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

June Cattle on Feed Report Recap

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA, NASS) released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (June 24, 2016). The report revealed that 10.799 million head of cattle were in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or larger on June 1, 2016. Placements into feedlots during the month of May totaled 1.884 million head while marketings during the same month totaled 1.794 million head.

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Placements totaled 1.884 million head, an increase of 9.60% from May 2015 and a 1.64% decrease from the five-year average from 2011 to 2015. Market analyst expected placements to be up 9.5%, so the reported value came in slightly above but still very close to expectations. This month’s numbers continue the trend of increasing heavy placements, with cattle larger than 800 pounds seeing an 19.7% year-over-year increase.

Cattle marketed in May totaled 1.794 million head, up 4.85% versus last year and down 6.00% compared to the average from 2011 to 2015. Pre-report expectations called for marketings to be 4.60% higher than the same period last year, so they came in slightly above where analysts anticipated they would be.

The total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity totaled 10.799 million head, up 2.16% versus June 1, 2015 and 0.34% higher than the five-year average.  Market analysts expected a 2.0% year-over-year increase in cattle inventories, so the reported value came in slightly above expectations. Overall, there were not many surprises in this report with most of the numbers coming in very close to expectations.

Crop Market Update: June 21, 2016

Corn is higher this week with Greenville cash corn currently trading $0.15 higher than a week ago and $0.73 higher than a year ago at $4.46/bu on Friday. July futures contracts are $0.15 higher on the week at $4.38/bu. Mississippi producers have 71% of the state’s corn crop silking, ahead of last year’s pace and ahead of the 5-year average of 62%. Rains are improving Mississippi’s corn crop condition with 64% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition, up 5% from last week. Favorable growing conditions have the U.S. corn crop looking good with 75% of the crop rated in good or excellent condition.

Soybean markets are trading lower this week, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.18 lower at $11.52/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $9.83/bu. Nearby July soybean futures are trading $0.19 lower than a week ago. Mississippi’s soybean crop condition is also improving with 67% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition, a 2% improvement from last week. Producers across the U.S. are slightly ahead of schedule in planting soybeans with 96% of the crop in the ground nationally compared to a 5-year average of 93%. The U.S. soybean crop looks good overall with 73% of the nation’s soybean crop rated in good or excellent condition.

July wheat futures are down $0.14 from a week ago at $4.81 while Greenville wheat prices are also down $0.14 on the week at $4.71/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville cash wheat was selling for $4.60/bu. Mississippi’s wheat crop is continuing to progress with 84% of the state’s wheat crop harvested, slightly behind last year’s pace and slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 82%. Nationally, the wheat crop is in relatively good condition with 61% of the U.S crop rated good or excellent, much better than last year when 41% of the U.S. crop was rated good or excellent. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is slightly behind schedule with 25% of the U.S. wheat crop harvested compared to a 5-year average of 28%.

Cotton prices finished the week higher with South Delta cash prices trading $0.75/cwt higher than a week ago at $65.00/cwt and $2.12/cwt higher than a year ago. Nearby cotton futures are lower with July Cotton futures closing at $64.75, up $0.18/cwt from last week while more distant futures contracts are all higher. Mississippi producers currently have about 35% of the state’s cotton crop squaring, ahead of a year ago and ahead of the 5-year average of 32%. This week 60% of Mississippi’s cotton crop is rated in good or excellent condition while 54% of the U.S. crop is in good or excellent condition. Nationally, 22% of the cotton crop is squaring, right on pace with the 5-year average of 21%.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local cash prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending June 17, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were lower this week. The five-area fed steer price for the week of June 9-June 16 averaged $121.03 for live sales, and $195.03 for dressed; respectively, down $5.78 and $7.84. Total volume sold was up 12,000 head from a week ago and up 54,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City 500-550 pound steers were down $5.00 while heavier 750-800 pound steers were down $4.00. Mississippi pasture were steady this week with 63% rated good or excellent, down 1% from a week ago.  In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $10.00 from a week ago, averaging $145.00, while heavy steers were averaging $120.00, unchanged from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were lower this week. June live cattle were down $5.68 on the week and $35.35 lower than a year ago at $116.55, while August live cattle were down $5.03 from last week and down $38.18 from a year ago. Feeder cattle were also lower this week with August futures down $8.10 from last Friday and down $86.25 from a year ago at $137.18 while October futures are down $7.53 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.13 from a week ago at $4.37 while September futures are also up $0.15.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are mixed compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $225.53, down $0.07 from a week ago and $24.34 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $202.54, up $0.75 from last week. The choice-select spread narrowed slightly from last week’s record of $23.81 to $22.99 this week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Crop Market Update: June 13, 2016

Corn is mixed this week with Greenville cash corn currently trading $0.02 lower than a week ago and $0.51 higher than a year ago at $4.31/bu on Friday. July futures contracts are $0.05 higher on the week at $4.23/bu. Mississippi producers have 49% of the state’s corn crop silking, ahead of last year’s pace and ahead of the 5-year average of 44%. Mississippi’s corn crop is showing some signs of stress with 59% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. Favorable growing conditions have the U.S. corn crop looking good with 75% of the crop rated in good or excellent condition. The USDA also released the June World Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday, June 10, 2016. Corn ending stocks for the 2016/17 crop year were reduced by 145 million bushels, driven primarily by an increase in exports and lower carry-over.

Soybean markets are trading higher this week, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.46 higher at $11.70/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $9.70/bu. Nearby July soybean futures are trading $0.46 higher than a week ago. Despite the recent rains, Mississippi’s soybean crop is some stress with just 65% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. Producers across the U.S. are slightly ahead of schedule in planting soybeans with 92% of the crop in the ground nationally compared to a 5-year average of 87%. The U.S. soybean crop looks good overall with 74% of the nation’s soybean crop rated in good or excellent condition. Friday’s WASDE estimates had soybean stocks for 2016/17 down 45 million bushels from last month mostly due to lower carry-over and higher exports.

July wheat futures are down $0.02 from a week ago at $4.95 while Greenville wheat prices are also down $0.12 on the week at $4.85/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville cash wheat was selling for $4.99/bu. Mississippi’s wheat crop is in mixed condition so far this year with just 46% rated good or excellent. A dry week has harvest progressing well in Mississippi with 56% of the state’s wheat crop harvested, slightly behind last year’s pace as well as the 5-year average of 59%. Nationally, the wheat crop is in relatively good condition with 61% of the U.S crop rated good or excellent, much better than last year when 43% of the U.S. crop was rated good or excellent. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is behind schedule with just 11% of the U.S. wheat crop harvested compared to a 5-year average of 18%.

Cotton prices finished the week higher with South Delta cash prices trading $0.83/cwt higher than a week ago at $65.00/cwt and $2.43/cwt higher than a year ago. Nearby cotton futures are lower with July Cotton futures closing at $64.75, up $0.83/cwt from last week. Mississippi producers currently have about 17% of the state’s cotton crop squaring, slightly ahead of a year ago and ahead of the 5-year average of 14%. This week 58% of Mississippi’s cotton crop is rated in good or excellent condition while 53% of the U.S. crop is in good or excellent condition. Nationally, 13% of the cotton crop is squaring, right on pace with the 5-year average of 13%.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local cash prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending June 10, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were mixed this week. The five-area fed steer price for the week of June 2-June 9 averaged $126.81 for live sales, and $202.87 for dressed; respectively, up $3.99 and up $1.55. Total volume sold was up 71,000 head from a week ago and up 49,000 head from last year.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were steady to slightly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City 500-550 pound steers were averaging $170.32 while heavier 750-800 pound steers were averaging $146.01. The rain last week was much needed with Mississippi pasture conditions 64% rated good or excellent, unchanged from a week ago.  In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were unchanged from a week ago, averaging $155.00, while heavy steers were averaging $120.00, down $6.50 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were mostly lower this week. June live cattle were up $0.17 on the week and $30.23 lower than a year ago at $122.23, while August live cattle were down $0.38 from last week and down $33.28 from a year ago. Feeder cattle mostly lower this week with August futures down $1.47 from last Friday and down $78.18 from a year ago at $145.28 while October futures are down $1.10 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.05 from a week ago at $4.24 while September futures are also up $0.08.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are higher compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $225.60, up $3.20 from a week ago and $20.78 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $201.79, up $1.21 from last week. The choice-select spread widened from $21.82 a week ago to $23.81 this week, which continues the trend of some of the widest spreads in more than 10 years.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.

Crop Market Update: June 6, 2016

Corn is higher this week with Greenville cash corn currently trading $0.12 higher than a week ago and $0.49 higher than a year ago at $4.33/bu on Friday. July futures contracts are $0.05 higher on the week at $4.18/bu. Mississippi producers have 21% of the state’s corn crop silking, ahead of last year’s pace and behind the 5-year average of 27%. Mississippi’s corn crop is showing some signs of stress with 62% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. Favorable growing conditions have the U.S. corn crop looking good with 75% of the crop rated in good or excellent condition.

Soybean markets are trading higher this week, with Greenville soybeans trading $0.45 higher at $11.24/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville soybeans were trading for $9.68/bu. Nearby July soybean futures are trading $0.45 higher than a week ago. Mississippi’s soybean crop is also showing some stress due to the dry conditions last week with just 64% of the state’s crop rated in good or excellent condition. Producers across the U.S. are slightly ahead of schedule in planting soybeans with 83% of the crop in the ground nationally compared to a 5-year average of 77%. The U.S. soybean crop looks good overall with 72% of the nation’s soybean crop rated in good or excellent condition

July wheat futures are up $0.15 from a week ago at $4.97 while Greenville wheat prices are also up $0.15 on the week at $4.97/bu on Friday. A year ago, Greenville cash wheat was selling for $5.34/bu. Mississippi’s wheat crop is in mixed condition so far this year with just 47% rated good or excellent. Harvest is underway in Mississippi with 17% of the state’s wheat crop harvested, well behind last year’s pace as well as the 5-year average of 39%. Nationally, the wheat crop is in relatively good condition with 62% of the U.S crop rated good or excellent, much better than last year when 43% of the U.S. crop was rated good or excellent.

Cotton prices finished the week lower with South Delta cash prices trading $0.36/cwt lower than a week ago at $64.17/cwt and $1.66/cwt higher than a year ago. Nearby cotton futures are lower with July Cotton futures closing at $63.92, down $0.36/cwt from last week. Mississippi producers have currently planted about 94% of the state’s cotton crop, slightly ahead of a year ago and ahead of the 5-year average of 93%. This week 55% of Mississippi’s cotton crop is rated in good or excellent condition. Nationally, 75% of the cotton crop has been planted, behind the 5-year average of 84%.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local cash prices click here.

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending June 3, 2016

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were mixed this week. The five-area fed steer price for the week of May 26-June 2 averaged $122.82 for live sales, and $201.32 for dressed; respectively, down $1.99 and up $4.56. Total volume sold was down 66,000 head from a week ago and down 30,000 head from last year, but much of that is driven by one less slaughter day this week.

Feeder steer cattle and calves were steady to slightly lower across the U.S. this week. Oklahoma City did not have a sale this week due to Memorial Day. Dry weather is starting to take a toll on Mississippi pasture conditions 64% rated good or excellent, down 7% from a week ago.  In Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were unchanged from a week ago, averaging $155.00, while heavy steers were averaging $126.50, up $4.00 from last week.

[ … For Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures were higher this week. June live cattle were up $2.35 on the week and $30.77 lower than a year ago at $122.05, while August live cattle were up $1.50 from last week and down $32.67 from a year ago. Feeder cattle mostly higher this week with August futures up $0.28 from last Friday and down $75.15 from a year ago at $146.75 while October futures are up $0.53 on the week. Nearby corn futures are up $0.06 from a week ago at $4.19 while September futures are also up $0.06.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are lower compared to a week ago. Choice boxes averaged $222.40, down $0.79 from a week ago and $27.26 lower than a year ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $200.58, down $4.20 from last week. The choice-select spread widened from $18.41 a week ago to $21.82 this week, which marks the widest spread since 2003.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.